Belmont All Stakes Analysis (2458 Views)
Posted by:
sekrah (IP Logged)
Date: June 10, 2017 09:43AM
Easy Goer - VERY tough, competitive race. You got Baffert sitting pretty with the fastest horse by 2 points, and several with very sharp patterns from Pletcher (2), Brown, Asmussen, and Tagg. Casse has an interesting 2nd time starter that's been training lights out. The only one that you might get a good price on that might be worth a key in the tris and supers is Tagg's Tale of Silence (15-1 ML). Full brother to Tale of Ekati, only four pts developed since his 2yo top, and gets that good spacing into this one after pairing up his top six weeks ago. Just needs about 2-3 pt move to put him in contention to win here.
Brooklyn - If the morning line doesn't change, I'll take Irad and Tu Brutus at 2-1 over Send It In any day. There's really not much else to love in this race unless you're a Governor Malibu fan, I'm not sure that quick-turn back move is the best for him here. War Story has spit the bit anytime he's been asked to go further than 9f. The Argentinian-bred Idolo Porteno seems interesting for a clunk-up in the exotics, maybe even 2nd if Send It In reacts to that last effort.
Acorn - From what I hear Abel Tasman has looked even better since her Oaks win, and the pattern is ripe for a move forward here, a major contender but a cheap price. The one with some value to look at is Benner Island (6-1). Rebounded nicely in her last and is just 2 points improved from 2yo, should have a big one in her this summer, could be today. Salty is another one that could move forward here, if she drifts up to that 6-1 range, she's definitely worth a look. I'll let Sweet Loretta beat me at 5/2.
Ogden Phipps - Songbird looks like a beast in here and is training lights out, but if you can buy the figure from Bar Of Gold last October, you can definitely make a case for her. Third off the layoff is Kimmel's best move and he's been firing a bunch of tops/pairs lately. Gold should fire a good one today. Highway Star looks ripe for a move forward as well if you are looking for another one underneath.
Jaipur - Pure Sensation stands out for me here. Fastest figs and is coming in off the dead turf rail on Derby day to help give him a little price, should get rail trip here and the rail was plenty firm yesterday. Straight win bets for me at 5/2 or better. Hogy is a good one on the outside, but will really struggle for a fair trip here. Holding Gold is one I really like that I think is going to be good in the future and could be very competitive here.
Woody Stephens - The obvious TG overlay here is Gold For The King. If you're buying TG sheets, you're kind of silly if you don't use this horse. That's not to say he's the only contender here, he's not. But at 15-1 ML, he's a must use. Blessed Hero also has a big fig at a big price, but he's much more of a bounce candidate with the 5 pt move and shorter rest. Wild Shot is interesting for sure, but he might want that extra furlong and a 4-1 ML is pretty weak. Baffert has another one good one that's training well, but I think I prefer Brown's Long Haul Bay over that one. Lots of rest coming in and has been working awesomely. Giuseppe The Great could be another price horse worth using as well. Potential to make a nice score in this race if it all comes together.
Just A Game - So Chad Brown puts Javy on Antonoe and not Roca Rojo? Is it only because he could make the weight? Well Antonoe's last is definitely better than the figures that have been given. I have her as an easy 4 in that one (well back of a slow pace and murdered them). She's been training superb and you cannot just toss this one out I think. She's definitely more appealing to me than some of the others that have been running 3-4s. I almost would be shocked if we didn't get a Chad Brown exacta here.
Met Mile - Spread race. There's easily 8 horses that wouldn't surprise me if they won. Rally Cry, Denman's Call, Sharp Azteca, Economic Model, Tom's Ready, Mor Spirit, Tommy Macho, Awesome Slew. If you had to pin me down, I'll say most likely winner is Sharp Azteca. My value plays are Tom's Ready, who is ready to move into negative territory, and Denman's Call. O'Neill doesn't ship unless he has the goods and this one is training well.
Woodford Reserve - Always a tough race, but I actually have a strong opinion in this one for a change. I don't think Time Test got the best of setups in his US debut and should run even better today. Big win bet for me if he goes off near 5-1.
Belmont - Tapwrit paired his top (with trouble) in the Derby, and Pletcher runs well in this race. A horse that I'll be using that hasn't been mentioned much: Meantime. I adjusted his last race forward to 3, based on that wicked pace he set over the slop in the Peter Pan. I love the fact that Mike Smith is getting on this one and think he could really move him up at 10f. Those are my two keys. Irish War Cry is eligible to come back to his figure here, but at 4-1 no thanks for me. Don't understand Motion's love for Rajiv Maragh, I don't trust him going classic distances at all.
Best Win Bets: Pure Sensation, Time Test
Best Value Bets (assuming ML): Tale of Silence, Benner Island, Bar of Gold, Gold For The King, Antonoe, Tom's Ready, Meantime
Good luck.