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Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (1116 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: June 13, 2017 11:43PM

I can only speak for what I know about the most well-known and successful of the computer teams (B. Benter/A. Woods), but I do know from what I've read and heard from the practitioners themselves that they bet as much as they can at each track, according to the formula for maximum expected value (whatever produces the maximum profit, given that larger bets drive down the odds), and they do indeed funnel a lot into the exotic pools (the more exotic the better, since their edge is multiplicative).

Here's what Bill Benter said about the subject back in May of 2003, at which point they were about 10 years into the Hong Kong market, and computer teams had started to penetrate the U.S. market:

>
[i]“A report from the trenches...10 years ago we were in the golden age of horse racing. Well, the age is still golden...This year, the aggregate win of all of the horseplayers using these systems will probably be the largest it’s ever been, and I would say that it’s more or less gone up every year.

"In particular markets – Hong Kong is kind of not as good as it used to be – pool sizes have fallen there and there’s a lot of competition - but looked at worldwide as these teams expand into new markets, this just gets better and better as time goes on, so we still haven’t probably hit the peak yet of how practical these systems are. Teams are playing around the world in most of the big racing markets very successfully.[/i]
[i]
“There’s very little sign - we have talked before - ...will the public get better, and start producing better estimates? We haven’t seen much sign of it. It seems that basically, the probability estimates set by the public are not much better than they were, and computer models still seem to be able to outperform the public by the same large margin. Competing teams – that is people using computer systems in the same markets definitely hurt, but life goes on. Everybody still seems to win, even when you have two or three teams going head to head, betting on the same horses, driving down the odds on the same horses, everybody still keeps winning somehow."[/i]
>

He also said at another conference that he doesn't bet everything at the last minute. He often disguises his bets by betting at different times throughout the betting period leading up to post time, and often even on other horses, to throw the other computer teams off his trail.


Rocky R



Subject Written By Posted
What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (1677 Views) hellersorr 06/12/2017 09:08PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (1143 Views) TempletonPeck 06/13/2017 12:32PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (1116 Views) Mathcapper 06/13/2017 11:43PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (1049 Views) hellersorr 06/14/2017 12:28PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (1006 Views) Mathcapper 06/14/2017 01:25PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (1276 Views) Furious Pete 06/14/2017 02:40PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (1041 Views) Mathcapper 06/14/2017 06:18PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (852 Views) hellersorr 06/14/2017 09:32PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (883 Views) Bet Twice 06/14/2017 10:25PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (846 Views) hellersorr 06/14/2017 10:42PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (1616 Views) Mathcapper 06/15/2017 01:43AM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (989 Views) TGJB 06/15/2017 11:33AM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (920 Views) Mathcapper 06/15/2017 11:54AM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (926 Views) TempletonPeck 06/15/2017 12:41PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (953 Views) TGJB 06/15/2017 01:28PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (798 Views) hellersorr 06/15/2017 03:39PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (975 Views) Furious Pete 06/15/2017 04:53PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (903 Views) Mathcapper 06/15/2017 07:07PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (872 Views) hellersorr 06/15/2017 09:08PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (869 Views) Mathcapper 06/15/2017 10:03PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (946 Views) Boscar Obarra 06/15/2017 10:12PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (838 Views) richiebee 06/15/2017 05:35PM
Re: What I Don't Understand About Last-Second Program Betting (818 Views) legendbets 06/16/2017 01:43PM


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