Tavasco,

“this horse is s/b” – can you translate the s/b? Thanks.

“Do you like front runners on tracks that are not fast?” On a grass course, yes. If the grass course is firm, the horses race on top of the ground rather than through it (obviously). The softer it gets, the deeper the runners sink into the ground, which will blunt the speed of their finishing kick. Since a lot of grass races are run with a slowish early pace (especially compared with dirt races) with an anticipation of a quickening 3-2F out to sprint home, the inability to quicken at the same rate late on to chase a moderate pace favors the front runner who can maintain his fractions. The fact that the courses in North America are so turning and short-stretched in nature I think helps as well, since if it is harder to accelerate in general on softer ground, it will be that much more difficult on a sharp turn, and the short stretch leaves less time to make up the difference.

Obviously, different horses will sink into the soft ground to different extents, depending partly on their hoof, their stride, but especially on their weight – the heavier the horse, the more they generally sink in, so a lighter built horse can often take to soft ground better. Something the Mig pointed out just before Found beat Golden Horn in the Breeders Cup Turf is that this often favors fillies and mares, since they are typically lighter built than males.

Macagone at Aqueduct is almost the perfect storm – agile horse who takes turns well, not heavily built, generally a front runner …. I think he’s won his last 4 races at Aqueduct on less than firm ground.

In this race, Chocolate Ride does not have a great record on less than firm, although one of those was at 12F, not really his bailiwick. Plueven has a good record on softer turf though, so he would be hard to ignore if that is in fact the ground. Western Reserve and Kalamos both also have some modestly favorable form on less than firm, so its hard to argue with your analysis.