In my experience, it is mighty rare for 3yo fillies (that already have an established base as a 2yo) to run a series of figures that are absolutely fast without having a bounce or a reaction thrown in. I find 3yo fillies of this type are more prone than other types of horses to throwing in a poor effort every other or every several races (this doesnt necessary apply where the filly is slow; the numbers need to be of a certainly quality in the context to justify the expectation I am talking about).

Now, judging by her sheet, it would appear that Wesley Ward is quite aware of this phenomenon and is trying to counteract it by extraordinary spacing. Her figs this year are exceptionally fast for a 3yo filly and she just keeps firing them. They are a fairly large step up from her two year old reaction point. Every other race or every couple of races, I would definitely be expecting a reaction race for a 3yo filly firing off numbers like this. The reason I am confused and cautious here is that Ward is an extremely sharp horseman, and from what I can see....he seems to be aware of this issue and is trying to counteract it.

Also, if you would say that applying this same logic to Stellar Wind's 3 yo year would have failed, my reply would be that Stellar Wind as a 3yo was different from Lady Aurelia as a three year old for several reasons (1) Lady Aurelia had a 2yo reaction point and Stellar Wind did not, (2) Lady Aurelia's 3yo improvement and figures in the months we are comparing were faster numbers in absolute terms AND also represented a bigger jump up in the context, (3) the argument can be made that Stellar Wind never had a first reaction point until she was a 4yo.....her line from her 2yo year and through her 3yo year can be said to be all development progression (Stellar Wind having never had a bounce would be harder to forecast one whereas Lady Aurelia has in fact clearly bounced already in her career -- the argument would run that Stellar Wind was a slower developing horse than Lady Aurelia was).