When it comes to 3yr olds who participate in the classics and give large efforts, I assume by default that they are going to be burnt out and regressing by late summer, and usually can make nice scores playing against horses like Always Dreaming, who the public is still betting based on Derby hype.

To me, the key was the -2 late in the summer, which to me said Midway was actually much better than he was during the triple crown season, and had improved quite a bit since that time.

The short term pattern was obviously a concern with a decent bounce off that -2, but overall a 3yr old who is doing by far better than he ever has in the last summer/early fall months right before the breeders cup is a positive sign and definitely worth using at long odds as part of a spread in some multi-race wagers.

And obviously the fact that his -2 came over the track was a good sign as well