Take Charge Indy, The Sire of Noble Indy, performance record was not that of a bettors favorite except for his 7/1 Florida Derby win.

1. Both (father & son) won at first asking. Although Take Charge Indy started his career in July of his two year old campaign. Noble indy was unveiled in early December at the end of his freshman year.

2. Take Charge Indy became somewhat of a celebrity upon winning the Florida Derby.while dispatching Union Rags, El Padrino and Fort Loudon to name a few. The win elevated TCI's stature as a Derby contender where he subsequently went off as the 4th choice or thereabouts. Noble Indy became a TG GP steam horse after winning his first two races with good TG #'s. So is this colt headed for championships or one asked for too much too early.

3. Take Charge Indy came back after his poor KD to finish off his 3 y/o year well and follow it up with a good 4 y/o spring. BUT he diddn't win, he ran against top older stakes horses but only captured minor awards. Now after good TG #'s and a troubled trip in the Risen Star I should think this son Noble Indy is going to exceed The sires accomplishments.

4. Tonite my perspective is that Noble Indy is an underlay at the m/l odds. He's the second choice behind a last out stakes winner. So the ROTW logic is to bet aginst the fast horse and on the trouble horse. AKA draw a line through his last it wasn't representative. The ROTW is most interesting to me because of its quest for value. To select a horse because it seems the most likely winner is something else again except for horizontal players in which case AOK.

In summary, Since I prefer betting exactas and trifectas I look at economic opportunities differently. Where the horizontal player takes a stand and singles Noble Indy my strategy is to leave that one off my tickets. The fact that TAP is the trainer is a huge consideration. Which is to say singling the TAP entry in a TC prep can't be a bad idea anymore than trying to beat a crowd favorite with ??? form.

However - how many times do you remember TAP turning a horse around. If anything he's linear good gets better bad get sold off. Not remembering too many up and down performers. (I suppose there are some)

Good luck Frank, after thinking this race through I don't have a strong opinion and now expect to observe.