Sunland Derby and Question for Administrator (1369 Views)
Posted by: Socalman3
Date: March 24, 2018 09:56PM
I wrote up the message below and tried to post and discovered I have been banned. I am the person formally known as Socalman2. I have no idea why I have been banned and also my attempts to contact the administrator to find out what happened were also stymied. If I really have been banned, I would like to know why. Anyway, I believe the post below should not be a problem.
Am sure I am totally jinxing myself, but in Sunday's Sunland Derby, it looks to me like Mandella has a very live horse at 12-1. Looks too good to be true, but here goes
First off, need to address the fact that the horse is coming back on two weeks rest. That is incredibly unusual in general and incredibly unusual for Mandella particularly. However, I think the Derby eligibility formula explains it and also gives comfort that they are expecting the horse to run his race.
On the sheets, this horse has the best 2 turn top of any horse in the race (and today's race is 9 panels going two turns). So right off, you get 12-1 for the horse that has run the fastest number in today's configuration.
Now, why, you might ask, is the fastest figure going off at 12-1? Well, I would say it is for reasons you do not need to worry about today. Yes, the horse lost its last race by 7 lengths at 44-1, but that race was against McKinzie AND Bolt D'Oro and the horse still finished only half a length behind Kanthaka (who drubbed the favorite in today's race by 15 lengths). So the "bad" effort might look that way on the form BUT DOES NOT LOOK THAT WAY ON THE SHEETS.
The race 2 back was a miserable effort, but the horse was the 2-1 favorite and clearly did not run his race....and there is an obvious reason for it -- he was trying blinkers for the first time, but they came off after the bad effort and he responded with a good race once they came off.
A skeptic might say that it is dangerous to just rely on one number, but you do not have to with this horse. He ran an excellent top as a two year old (in fact, his 2yo two turn top is better than any other horse in the race could at 2 going two turns) and his big number this year is only a 1 point improvement from 2 to 3.
Skeptics may say the horse is due to bounce, but I say Mandella is guy who would worry about that and his bringing the horse here suggests he is comfortable. Also, the top was not big and isolated...it fits with his 2yo top.
Even though the race of the week did produce a winning horse today, I would view this race as a much richer opportunity than that.
Of course, I have jinxed myself and this horse, but at least know you are in good company if you bet on Peace and lose.