Socalman3 Wrote:
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> Well, looks like I am going to jinx myself again.
>
> First off, thank you to TG for a great race of the
> week. Really really chewy race.
>
> Agree that Oscar Nominated runs the most
> consistent efforts and with an decent trip hard to
> imagine him not needing to be on tickets (Although
> Rosario has made me tear my hair out before).
>
> The horse that interests me the most in the race
> and who I am going to use as a co-key with Oscar
> Nominated is Canessar.
>
> This is really a pattern play, but to me an
> exceptionally strong pattern play.
>
> First off, you have a horse trying a mile and a
> half off a layoff. That is a big question, but
> look at this horse's history off layoffs -- from
> 2yo year to 3yo year, from 3yo year to 4 yo year,
> from europe to Maryland. Every time horse moves
> forward.
>
> With the exception of the outside horse, this
> horse is the most lightly raced horse in the race,
> and in general the horse just has a steady forward
> moving developmental pattern. Only bounce was off
> a lifetime top jump up first lasix late in season.
> Totally excusable bounce.
>
> Arguably, this horse is coming into this race off
> a 0-2-X (it is a 0-2-6months off -- but that is
> close to being a 0-2-X)
>
> Also, I like this horse's european form.....his
> last 5 races in Europe were all in races longer
> that 12 panels and he was taking the lead and
> getting caught....so the Laurel first lasix
> lifetime top was also shortening up in distance.
> His last three european races were 5s at either 14
> or 15 panels where he was leading. in my view,
> those numbers need to be treated like they are
> even better when you think he is getting a quarter
> of a mile or more less distance today. If any of
> the other horses in this race were running 14 or
> 15 furlongs, I doubt they could have done as well
> as he did (and it was without lasix).
>
> I also find his workout pattern very intriguing.
> HAs anybody ever seen a horse with 3 workouts in 8
> days? look at his last three at Tampa. Very
> interesting. The turf work around the dogs on
> this surface looks good too. Have to think
> Trainer is pointing to this race.
>
> Finally, this is a horse that is usually well
> backed. His longest odds in his career was in a
> G2 against the future Breeders Cup Turf winner
> where he was 6-1. He was the favorite out of 12
> horses in the autumn version of this race last
> out. If he was favorite there, I do not see what
> he has done since then to justify morning line
> odds of 15-1.
>
> Again, given this opus, I have probably stuck a
> fork in this horse, but I am going to put my money
> where my keyboard is and go down with this ship.


I was sure wrong when I wrote about this horse back in April. Going back to the well again today. Maybe this time is the right time.