jbrown007 Wrote:
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> 'Chad Brown solid off layoffs so the Fountain of
> Youth blemish looms large.'
>
> I think there is enough documented info from Chad
> that he is treating Good Magic sightly different
> then some of his older horses off the bench. He
> firmly believes horse will be best third off bench
> and they are bringing him along. He was
> disappointed with his GP performance but I don't
> think we should be with the number he produced off
> the bench. He also took a nice step forward second
> off bench which proves Brown is tightening him up
> (a lot of brown's don't move forward much second
> off bench). As a thoro handicapper we should love
> his Bluegrass performance=Slow brisnet and Beyer
> which should keep the public off. Unlike some of
> the past horses the thoro has landed on(such as
> last year where I felt the horse was a better 1
> turn horse) this horse is proven two turn winner
> with breeding from Curlin and Hard Spun. He has
> only improved slightly from last year (and curlins
> improve with age) and he has a perfect running
> style for the derby. I can see a top in derby and
> if the baffert horse doesn't get things his way
> Magic is very very logical.

I just do not see his first race off the layoff as a blemish in any way, shape, or form. He ran a new lifetime top and a figure that on number power is almost right there already (he lost by 4 lengths but ran a better figure than the winner).

If you look at that race, the top two ran 1-2 all the way around the track in a bizarre configuration (starting gate insanely close to first turn) that helps the inside speed horses. The horse that won was lightly race and had license to do what he did with the lead. the horse that ran second had very strong number power, but was trying two turns for the first time.

This horse's pattern is exceptionally strong. I see his first race back as a plus in that regard, not as a negative. It was the strength of that race which I think explains the positive move in the Blue Grass. To me, I do not see this horse moving backwards and I think he has a very good chance of stepping forward again.

Hoary saying -- Do not give a horse a bounce until it gives you a bounce first.

If that wisdom is true, this horse needs to be taken extremely seriously.