A few notes (by my husband) from the July 25th Del Mar card...

"In race #6, Remonte was 51% to pair his recent two 4's. No one else in the field looked to be better than a 7. Bet down from his 5/1 morning line to 7/2, on the surface it looked like a gift. Remonte finished 7th in a field of ten, and never threatened at any point.

So what happened? The two paired 4's were both accomplished at the marathon distance of 1 1/2 miles, and the current race was at a distance of 1 1/16. His figures for races other than at 1 1/2 did not show any significant advantage over the rest of the field. I thought he was a bet against and played accordingly. As Jerry says, you still have to handicap!

In race #7, Stonebridge Lady was sent off as the 2/1 favorite and finished a well-beaten 5th in a field of nine. She did have the best last race fig going in, but the new pattern stats indicated that she was 31% to run an "off" race and 54% to run an "x". The trainer's stats did not offer any significant contradiction to these percentages - as was the case with Bayamo (in the 8th) where the pattern stats suggested a bounce while the relevant trainer stats for 11-29 days showed that the horse was more likely to pair.

When there are significant differences between the pattern and trainer stats, I guess it's just back to basic handicapping as to determining which scenario is more likely to occur. But, Jerry, if you have any suggestions re this area, I would appreciate the insight.

In any event, the new stats seem to be working just fine out here!



Delmar Deb