Deb-- first of all, I agree that one of the best ways to approach races in general is to find vulnerable favorites. They are on an extremely high percentage of the exotic tickets, and if you can get them out your leverage is very high.

Remonte-- keep in mind that the stats are pretty inclusive in order to keep the sample size large enough to be meaningful. This means that off-top-pair includes situations where the top was a 2 point top, and others where it was a 4 point top, as with Remonte. While I did use the horse in a box, and did consider him the most likely winner of the race, I think his chance of running another one was less likely than the pattern stats indicated because the jump was so big. Additionally, as you mentioned, the tops came in his only marathon tries, and he did have some trouble in the race. I might very well play this horse next time if he shows up in a place where his 4 is good, especially since he might go off a price because of the off race.

Stonebridge Lady-- I wouldn't have used the pattern stats at all with this one, since there were two recent layoffs. I considered this horse and the race in general unhandicappable-- the races back east came for a "move up" trainer, she was being dropped off a win, and Mitchell is Mitchell. No clue what this one was going to do.

The overall point being, it's important to remember the criteria of the ones used in the study, and take a careful look at the differences between those and the individual horse in question, and then upgrade or downgrade the horse's chances accordingly. Or decide they don't apply-- there are certainly lots of situations where the trainer stats supercede the pattern stats. Bottom line, it's a game of long term percentages-- if you make decisions that are long term correct regarding overlays, you'll make money in the long term.



TGJB