Very interesting race to me
1) Dead closer fastest horse has not won at the distance in two try’s. Don’t like the draw.
2) Interesting to me with the weight break. Heard Chad say this horse could be a beast at a mile. Yes a bit weak on # power and Ruiz not exactly lighting up the board
3) Has never run a mile a sprinter strechting out? Very nice numbers @ 10-1 and should get the jump on the closers
4)Very interesting to me backs up to what many thought was his natural distance 2-2 at the distance Comes of the layof and pairs his top. 12-1
5) Ortiz riding shortening up has put some good works in he did pair his top last out.
6)Pletcher at Belmont surprise he only runs 15% new tops. Has the stalking style to have first run coming in light as well. Would need a new top to win
7) don’t like
8) Has never ran the distance and has never won past 6.5 F shipping in gives reason for confidence Defintily has the number power distance is the concern
9)Ran a new top in the slop last out but prior to that he was showing an erratic but improving patter.
10) The speed if it’s holding will be dangerous. I like his pattern and thoropattern shows 37% new top Asmussen runs just ok at Belmont
11) Finished 4th inn the race last year despite running a respectful #.Third race of the layoff is he still hungover from that big new top?

All things considered first thought is the 4.
I think he is sitting on a big race following that layoff, needs to avoid traffic hopefully gets thru on the rail and enjoy that stretch.
I do not expect him to go of at 12-1 though

Thoughts?
Good Luck
John
PS I typed this with a buzz so disregard the grammar
PSS Sometimes I think I handicap better with a buzz?