Dana666 Wrote:
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> I've noticed this type of disparity for many, many
> years now. Generally speaking, pick 4's and pick
> 5's pay way more at NYRA tracks than SO CAL.
> Doesn't make much sense because the pools are so
> large in SO CAL, but this is a common thing,
> especially pick 4's. It's ridiculous how much
> better NYRA pays. Now, pick 6's are a different
> animal. SO CAL still has the best pick 6's, but I
> can't explain the other wagers. I'd love to hear
> an explanation.

[color=#FF0000]The Pick 5’s at both circuits should pay roughly twice the parlay on average (at least the early Pick5 at So-Cal, which has been around for quite some time). Haven’t looked closely at the So-Cal circuit payoffs in about 5 years, but in the sample set I last looked at back in 2012 they were actually paying a little better than expected (+130% > parlay vs. +99% expected).

Would be very surprised if NYRA circuit is paying consistently better than So-Cal vis-à-vis the takeout-adjusted win parlays, but it’s possible they’re paying more on an absolute basis. Perhaps smaller fields at the So-Cal circuit have led to more compact probability distributions and/or a higher percentage of favorites/logical winners, which resulted in lower absolute payoffs(?)

Pool size shouldn’t have much of an effect on the overall payoffs, unless you’re dealing with some county fair or something where the pools are so small that the odds in the superexotic pools can be a poor reflection of the win pool odds.
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BB Wrote:
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> Takeout on early and late Pick-5s at NYRA is 15%.
> At Del Mar, takeout on early Pick-5 is 14% while
> takeout on late Pick-5 is 23.68%.

[color=#FF0000]This has less of an effect than one might think. It only accounts for a fraction of the difference in yesterday’s payoffs that JTC noted in his original post.

The Del Mar parlay was $645, so at a 14% take, it should pay around 99% higher than the parlay, or around $1,284. At the 23.68% take, it should pay around 76% more than the parlay, or around $1,140. It actually came in at $835, about 29% higher than the parlay, which was a little light, but not all that much.

The Spa parlay on the other hand came back quite generous. The parlay was $220. At the 15% take, it should pay around 103% more than the parlay, or around $450. It actually paid $1,001, more than 4.5x the parlay, which is toward the higher end of the range you typically see, but it does happen on occasion.
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