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Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (399 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2019 11:21PM

Well more than a week has passed since Fairmount1 posted his first iteration of projected m/l lines on April 16. Let me join the list of those who appreciate his effort.

Now for those out there curious about the significance of said list, let me remind that we need expected prices to discuss, kibbutz and otherwise blow steam about probable overlays.

I like to categorize my overlays into the top three positions. That is, I can consider a horse an overlay to place but not to win and that is mostly a function of running style. I'm just not gonna include a deep closer in the top spot unless I'm confident that there will be a pace meltdown or the pace horses can't get the distance.

So who are the overlays in the top slot the Win position per Fairmount1's current list. How far down the list need we go to get an overlay. Last year for example the only win overlay on my list was Magnum Moon I was wrong and haven't seen him since I keyed him? LOL

#07 Vekoma @ a projected 15/1 I consider an overlay estimating the probability of winning at roughly 10% 1/10
#12 War of Will @ 27/1 would be another with about the same chance imo.
They also qualify as overlays in the more minor placings.

The more I consider under in the tri & super the more I'm drawn to improbable @ 11/1. I fancy precision and most will spread much more than I will without regard to under/over/lay. With these pools why not? Just a bit curious about who is liking who.



Subject Written By Posted
Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (1461 Views) Fairmount1 04/16/2019 08:02PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (651 Views) Molesap 04/16/2019 09:55PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (609 Views) johnnym 04/16/2019 10:03PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (577 Views) boardedup 04/17/2019 08:29AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (591 Views) boardedup 04/20/2019 01:06AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (404 Views) johnnym 04/23/2019 04:28PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (399 Views) Tavasco 04/25/2019 11:21PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (371 Views) Gerard 04/26/2019 07:31AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (332 Views) RICH 04/26/2019 03:13PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (280 Views) Fairmount1 05/07/2019 08:51AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (221 Views) atakante 05/07/2019 01:01PM


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