Jimbo wrote

"My point was that I think T-Graph excludes some factors in their thinking. Like pace, distance limitations and race setup."

This is totally wrong.

1. Pace - Lion Heart figured to save every inch of ground (goodbye Mike Smith!) and control the pace. Hypothetically, if Lion Heart runs a zero on the rail, another horse going three wide on BOTH turns would have to run off the chart (-3 or better) to beat him. There are many ocassions where you can see a horse saving ground beating "faster" horses. TG handicappers DO take pace into account, but it's not really a conventional "pace handicapping" approach, that's all.

As for pure "pace handicapping", since LH essentially makes his own rail trip, he forces the other riders to decide -- push or wait. He dictates the pace entirely and I think (based on what I read) that Jerry thought that would be a significant advantage. So I think "TGraph" included pace and decided that it was a plus for Lion Heart. This is not EXCLUDING pace!

2. Distance Limitations - Lion Heart missed winning the Derby by a few lengths. You thought that Lion Heart couldn't last the ten panels. Jerry thought he could win. That's not really EXCLUDING distance limitations, is it? Jerry disagreed with you. That's different.

3. Race Setup - Another thing that was obviously taken into account, given Point 1. The "race setup" was: they were going to have to catch and pass Lion Heart. None of the horses, including the winner, were a slam dunk to fire their best shot here. I would not run to the windows to bet Birdstone at 9/2. Again, this isn't EXCLUDING race setup. Judging by Jerry's "play" he thought Lion Heart was a decent bet to at least hang around for third. God knows we have all watched enough races where the fizzling speed hangs around for a piece, no? You thought he would hang around for FOURTH! That's cutting it a little close if you're playing the tri...

All of these factors were taken into account in the analysis...

HP