Below is the udpdated output of the Derby Computer Model. I have shown each horse followed by the estimated percent "edge" for a win bet on the horse based on the morning line (a good value is one with a high positive edge) followed by the estimated odds of the horse winning followed by the estimated win pct, place pct, show pct, and 4th/super pct.

According to the model, Perfect Drift looks like a great value play. Saarland also looks good and RFP and War Emblem look like the best long shot value plays. HH and D'Oro are not great value but look like they may need to be used in exotics. The other favorites look like good plays against. Easy Grades, Blue Burner, and EOD and possibly a few others look like they could klunk up for a minor share if you are playing tris or supers.

Good luck to all in this year’s Derby. It looks like a great betting race.

Chris

P.S. To TGJB: great job on the seminar. Very slick production and excellent analysis.


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Horse Edge Est Odds Win% Place% Show% Super%

Perfect Drift 358% 2.5 29% 43% 54% 63%
Harlan's Holiday -43% 8.7 10% 20% 28% 36%
Saarland 60% 9.0 10% 21% 31% 40%
Request For Parole 97% 9.7 9% 20% 29% 38%
War Emblem 75% 11.0 8% 16% 24% 31%
Medaglio D'oro -44% 11.5 8% 17% 26% 34%
Buddah -70% 18.8 5% 11% 18% 24%
Easy Grades -30% 29.2 3% 8% 13% 19%
Blue Burner 1% 29.7 3% 8% 13% 18%
Essence of Dubai -49% 30.3 3% 7% 12% 19%
Private Emblem -40% 33.7 3% 7% 12% 17%
Came Home -84% 36.0 3% 8% 15% 22%
Johannesburg -89% 63.9 2% 4% 6% 10%
Ocean Sound -27% 68.4 1% 4% 8% 12%
Lusty Latin 0% NA 1% 3% 5% 8%
Proud Citizen 0% NA 1% 3% 5% 7%
Danthebluegrassman 0% NA 1% 2% 4% 6%
Wild Horses 0% NA 1% 2% 3% 5%
It'sallinthechase 0% NA 0% 1% 3% 5%
Castle Gandolfo 0% NA 0% 1% 2% 4%