>We would take the position that the reason a frontrunner makes a clear lead is that he is running a big one that day, and shows more speed in all parts of the race. <

I agree that this is "sometimes" the reason (and obviously the ground loss is always a factor).

I don't think there's a very good way to test any of this though. There are way too many complexities related to the interpretations of results.

I could provide a list of horses that got loose in a moderate pace, ran faster than expected, and then dropped back to their normal range when subsequently under pressure again.

You could find a way to rationalize most of those performances that is consistent with your beliefs.

You could provide a list of horses that got loose that didn't improve or that subsequently ran right back to that figure under pressure.

I could find a way to rationalize most of those performances that is consistent with my views.

Really, I think there are no exact formulas for this. No two horses are exactly alike in terms of their early speed, acceleration, stamina, willingness to compete, etc... Therefore, the benefit (final time wise) of being loose on the lead in a moderate pace varies from horse to horse depending on his own ability to relax, his stamina, and just how slow the pace is.

For ex:

A "very" slow pace might help a loose horse win because the last quarter will be so fast some of the closers will be physically incapable of catching up from their position. However, the pace could be "so slow", it might hurt the final time even though it helped the frontrunner win.

I like to use extremes to make a point, but then there is everything in between also.

One thing I am fairly certain about is that we are better off drawing any conclusions by studying the patterns of the most consistent horses (usually stakes horses).

I usually downgrade performances where a horse got loose in a moderate pace. That is especially true if there are other signs that indicate a benefit.

>I think that you will find that in cases where a lone speed is too slow (final figure) or has a negative pattern, they will not perform well on average.<

I think there are several things at work.

1. He may not clear because he's out of the gate a little slow.

2. He may not clear because the jock is a dummy.

3. He may not clear because someone else shows more speed than expected.

4. Other

So right from the start you can't assume the lone speed will clear. You have to assign it a pecentage - "this horse will clear about 40% (50%, 65% etc...) of the time" depending on the circumstances.

Even when he clears, that may only be worth a couple of lengths benefit. Even worse, the odds board may overrate him because of the expected positive effect of being loose.



Post Edited (09-08-04 15:56)