Re: Weighty Matters: Loose (on the lead) Ends (428 Views)
Posted by:
HP (IP Logged)
Date: September 08, 2004 04:13PM
In my observation, some jockeys are better at "nursing" the speed than others. Loose on the lead in and of itself is not such a tremendous advantage (leaving out the ground saved for a moment). In my observation, some jockeys are better at "nursing" the speed than others.
It's really only GREAT if the horse can get loose on the lead AND slow the pace down. Assuming you are talking about a mile race, loose on the lead by five lengths running a .45 half is one thing, and loose on the lead by two lengths running a .47 half is something else. I have been following Arlington more than usual lately and I know there are a few jockeys there that will screw up almost every time (given a horse with SOME chance of winning) and others that will get the contender home.
A good jockey will work his pace advantage and a bad one will give it up. It's almost like the way good jockeys seem to save ground when they can and good jockeys give up ground for no apparent reason. Bad jockeys misjudge the pace and lose ground and pile error on top of error. Pace handicapping and knowing the better jockeys really go hand in hand. The bad ones blow it A LOT!
This is all really more dramatic on grass than on dirt. I have noticed that the disparity between GOOD and BAD jockeys is greater on grass than on dirt, for whatever reason (I could speculate).
In my opinion, a real slam dunk pace edge is almost as rare as that other often discussed phenemenon -- the track bias. For every "lone speed" that turns into a wire job there are at least two that choke in the last hundred yards and get shut out of the exacta... HP
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