Tomorrow's Belmont Card (929 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: September 14, 2004 08:27PM
Ok, on to serious business. Anybody planning to bet tomorrow's Belmont card. Would love to hear any opinions. Here are some of mine (to be bludgeoned, if you like).
Race 1 - Rize is the fastest horse in the race. If you forget his last when he broke in the air, 6 of his lat 7 figures are faster than anybody else's in the race. Ahpo Here is the consensus favorite in the DRF and hopefully he goes off the favorite. As long as the Schettino claim doesn't move Rize "down" and Velasquze sits off Favorite Sweep (if necessary), anything near 5-2 would be a steal on Rize.
Race 3 - Have to key the strategy around betting against Gancentral Parkway off the big jump up last race. Hopefully that race + the move to Prado will make him the favorite. I am going to box Cuba, Infinite Glory and Go Now. I thik Go Now will get back to his previous numbers at Belmont, espeically at one turn. I think Infinite Glory is a win bet at anywhere near 4-1. Dutrow doesn't have to move him up to win and we all know he has a tendency to move them up off the claim.
Race 6 - Devine Wind is slower than both King Richard and Loving. Have to think Loving will take a lot of action, but his best figures are on dirt tracks, not turf. King Richard is as fast on turf and even though he hasn't tried the distance, breeding suggests he can handle 1 1/4 miles. Full Flow also faster on dirt than turf and should take money. King Richard to win at 4-1, using both King Richard and Loving in the Pick-4.
Race 7 - Betting against Fleet Indian as the favorite. At his best, he is par with several others. Off the 1 1/4 drubbing, not sure we will see his best. Swinging reacted badly to both previous good races, throwout. Nobody pairs up like Frankel. Hoping Fleet Indian goes off the favorite and want to bet Sweet Lips at 5-2 and single him in pick-4. Exactas over Mariakel at a price and also the entry (Mambo Bell). Hoping they don't let Fleet Indian loose on the lead, expecting Grand Prayer to run with her and set it up for the others.
Race 8 - Mike's Classic, Key Deputy, Aggadan and My Cousin Matt are all fast. Bishop Court Hill is slow here, but with his connections, coming off a win, I am hoping he takes money (4-1). Don't trust Ray Ganpath with Mike's Classic to not get hooked up in a speed duel (pace problem!!) with Bishop Court Hill (assuming he breaks this time). Aggadan's fastest races are at 7 furlongs, not 6. Willing to take a shot with Key Deputy at 5 to 1 or so, that he can sit behind the duel up front between Mike's Classic and Bishop Court Hill, then take over in the stretch. He gave it up last time at 7 furlongs, but he is better at 6. Win bet on Key Deputy, but going four deep on the pick 4.
Race 9 - Incredible Image and Ulla Bloom are both faster than Lightlively who is 3-1 on the morning line. Going two deep on the pick 4 and making a win bet on Incredible Image is she is 4-1 or so.
THoughts?