Re: Today's Belmont Card (456 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: September 16, 2004 12:08PM
Hern,
Thanks for the kind words.
I only looked at the first 3 races today, as I have a busy afternoon at work, so just "lunchtime action" for me. And the three races are not terribly appealing.
1st Race - America's Cat is the fastest horse and is also dropping from MSW to MC. But I am always suspect of Monmouth figures and also don't like horses that continue to give up leads in the stretch. If she goes off at odds on (likely?), I will bet against. Exclusive Print has room to improve off of only 3 career efforts. Her race two back was against Selltherallies and Come Dance, both of whom have come back to win VERY impressively. I will bet her at 2-1, if I can get it.
2nd Race - Taking a stab here, since I am using a relatively short price in the first race. Crazy Song has a couple of figures last year over the Belmont Turf course that could win this race. Hasn't run well in 2004 in two starts, but both were over the main track. At 10-1 ML, I will use her in the doubles. I also will use Mountain Top. I don't like that Frankel is using Lezcano, instead of his "go to" jocks, but the horse was trained by Andre Fabre and running in allowance company in France. Against a relatively slow field, at 6-1 ML, I think she is worth a shot. Exclusive Print with Crazy Song and Mountain Top in the doubles.
3rd Race - I really hope the Morning Line oddsmaker is correct. More Heck is slow and gets Ganpath, which is a double negative for me. Favorite Sweep is Dutrow off the claim. Dutrow has to move her up a couple of points to win, but I think he is usable in the exactas. He's a Knockout has some fast figures at Delaware and would be my win bet but I worry about the pace scenario. My guess is that Favorite Sweep, Le Bourget, Albert E and He's A Knockout all go for the lead. Which leads me to Mombo Loco. Throw out the last figure, which was a route effort and her sprint efforts make him tough. Add to that the pace scenario seemingly playing in his favor and he is my win bet. I will three horse box with Favorite Sweep and He's A Knockout.
Good luck,
Jim