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Re: Odds Changes (280 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: October 24, 2021 11:55AM

I mentioned my examples were anecdotal. But they were all in about a two hour period give or take on a Saturday afternoon.

No outcome is preordained. Even the ones that are could still go awry as happened in this not so famous Fairmount race.

[www.paulickreport.com]

But the idea that late odds drops are not happening is not accurate. They are happening. The question is if they are in line with what is expected based on other pools. BitPlayer mentioned that DRF has projected odds. I see them and know what they say. But if you pay attention they sometimes change and fluctuate as the race approaches. So I don't have any idea what their basis is for their projected odds. I don't put much stock in them for this reason. Rocky has taught me the method for calculating out the potential win odds based on other pools; however, when you are looking at multiple tracks it is more difficult to calculate all that out as you are making the fine line handicapping decisions.

I'm not a fixed odds guy. Even with these late odds changes, I still prefer to fight it out parimutually.

Last, I agree that odds go up on potential winners and odds go way down on losers also. It isn't just odds decreases on winners. But it seems to be happening more often that winners are being bet late. I even have one very respected friend who insists bets are going in after the race has started and there is no convincing him otherwise. Paying attention yesterday, I'm not sure how I would refute what he is saying. It is not a good look. If I am introducing people to the sport and tell them that 4-1 Microcap should be 4-1 based on double payouts and based on DRF Projections and the horse goes off 2-1 as he wins the race, the new potential fan would want me to explain. And the right answer is ? ? ? ?



Subject Written By Posted
I'm gone (728 Views) doug jackson 09/28/2021 09:11PM
Re: I'm gone (607 Views) Boscar Obarra 09/28/2021 10:52PM
Re: I'm gone (649 Views) P-Dub 09/28/2021 10:54PM
Re: I'm gone (662 Views) doug jackson 09/29/2021 01:48AM
Re: I'm gone (641 Views) Boscar Obarra 09/29/2021 01:30PM
Re: I'm gone (471 Views) johnnym 09/30/2021 02:40PM
Re: I'm gone (605 Views) TGJB 09/30/2021 03:01PM
Re: I'm gone (474 Views) johnnym 09/30/2021 03:38PM
Questions for anyone (559 Views) skitimber 09/30/2021 08:47PM
Re: I'm gone (497 Views) Boscar Obarra 10/01/2021 01:40AM
Re: I'm gone (490 Views) Fairmount1 10/03/2021 09:20PM
Re: I'm gone (370 Views) shanahan 10/04/2021 09:12AM
Re: I'm gone (356 Views) trackjohn 10/04/2021 11:18AM
Before you walk away (449 Views) Dana666 10/04/2021 02:24PM
Re: I'm gone (347 Views) johnnym 10/07/2021 08:40AM
Re: I'm gone (308 Views) shanahan 10/07/2021 10:41AM
Re: I'm gone (327 Views) johnnym 10/07/2021 11:04AM
Re: I'm gone (319 Views) doug jackson 10/23/2021 03:50PM
Re: I'm gone - Just A Minute (322 Views) Tavasco 10/23/2021 04:14PM
Re: I'm gone - Just A Minute (289 Views) doug jackson 10/23/2021 04:20PM
Re: I'm gone (341 Views) Fairmount1 10/23/2021 05:39PM
Re: Odds Changes (326 Views) BitPlayer 10/24/2021 12:53AM
Re: Odds Changes (280 Views) belmont3 10/24/2021 08:50AM
Re: Odds Changes (280 Views) Fairmount1 10/24/2021 11:55AM
Re: Odds Changes (283 Views) belmont3 10/24/2021 04:01PM
Re: Odds Changes (290 Views) Boscar Obarra 10/24/2021 08:39PM


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