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 Race of the Week:  2021 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Del Mar 5-6 November 2021 
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Re: Odds Changes (326 Views)
Posted by: BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: October 24, 2021 12:53AM

I think that if you are betting without looking at odds projections from other pools, you are making a mistake. I know DRF Bets includes odds projections from rolling doubles in its wager pad, and I think the same projections are included in Formulator. Other ADW's may have reasons for not doing the same, but I don't know what they are. The math is relatively straightforward. Instead they include things like AI picks and profit lines.

Here are the DRF Bets projections for the horses mentioned in this thread:

Beau Luminarie: 5/2
Microcap: 4/1
Caramel Swirl: 7/2
Cowboys Dream: 9/2
Get Back Goldie: None (1st race, no rolling DD)

I post my odds projections on Twitter from time to time and keep track of how the off-odds compare to my projections. For the Belmont fall meet, I have posted projections for 60 races in which there was no late scratch. In those races, 29 of the winners paid less than I projected, 2 paid the same amount, and 29 paid more.

For stakes races mostly at non-NYRA tracks going back to May of this year, I have posted projections for 187 races in which there was no late scratch. 89 of the winners paid less than I projected, 10 paid the same amount, and 88 paid more.

I concede that odds projections from DD betting are not perfect. In my experience, the final payout is 10% or more less-than-projected about 25% of the time and is 20% or more less-than-projected about 10% of the time.



Subject Written By Posted
I'm gone (728 Views) doug jackson 09/28/2021 09:11PM
Re: I'm gone (607 Views) Boscar Obarra 09/28/2021 10:52PM
Re: I'm gone (649 Views) P-Dub 09/28/2021 10:54PM
Re: I'm gone (662 Views) doug jackson 09/29/2021 01:48AM
Re: I'm gone (641 Views) Boscar Obarra 09/29/2021 01:30PM
Re: I'm gone (471 Views) johnnym 09/30/2021 02:40PM
Re: I'm gone (605 Views) TGJB 09/30/2021 03:01PM
Re: I'm gone (474 Views) johnnym 09/30/2021 03:38PM
Questions for anyone (559 Views) skitimber 09/30/2021 08:47PM
Re: I'm gone (497 Views) Boscar Obarra 10/01/2021 01:40AM
Re: I'm gone (490 Views) Fairmount1 10/03/2021 09:20PM
Re: I'm gone (370 Views) shanahan 10/04/2021 09:12AM
Re: I'm gone (356 Views) trackjohn 10/04/2021 11:18AM
Before you walk away (449 Views) Dana666 10/04/2021 02:24PM
Re: I'm gone (347 Views) johnnym 10/07/2021 08:40AM
Re: I'm gone (308 Views) shanahan 10/07/2021 10:41AM
Re: I'm gone (327 Views) johnnym 10/07/2021 11:04AM
Re: I'm gone (319 Views) doug jackson 10/23/2021 03:50PM
Re: I'm gone - Just A Minute (322 Views) Tavasco 10/23/2021 04:14PM
Re: I'm gone - Just A Minute (290 Views) doug jackson 10/23/2021 04:20PM
Re: I'm gone (341 Views) Fairmount1 10/23/2021 05:39PM
Re: Odds Changes (326 Views) BitPlayer 10/24/2021 12:53AM
Re: Odds Changes (280 Views) belmont3 10/24/2021 08:50AM
Re: Odds Changes (281 Views) Fairmount1 10/24/2021 11:55AM
Re: Odds Changes (283 Views) belmont3 10/24/2021 04:01PM
Re: Odds Changes (290 Views) Boscar Obarra 10/24/2021 08:39PM


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