upon reflection, I think this is the correct take. Blazing pace and horses out side of Zandon and Epicenter (more on him later), horses that finished top 5 were all way far back at the first call. Simply put, the Race broke down and the horse with the fastest closing pace fig (time form) got a great ride weaving between horses to steal the race. If the best horses on paper, or in the race, won 100% of the time, would we even care to play this game?

Imagine this, Irad had the 1 post and navigated his horse 10 wide, while the horse in the 21 post, got a perfect trip up the rail. Irad Ortiz had his lunch stolen by Sonny Leon. ... It takes me back to a book I read years ago called Scorecasting. The basic premise of the book is that in sports, you often have athletes who play not to lose, versus playing to win. That is what Irad did (take a horse 10 wide and hope for a check) and on the flip side, Sonny played to win (fearlessly navigate horses driving home on the rail).

On to Epicenter. Far and away the best horse in the race. If only Joel had gotten him to switch leads, and I think he holds off the charging closer to win the race.