Roman Wrote:
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> That is one of my most important factor in finding
> overlays, 6 and 8 furlong fractions on route races
> shortening up. Most of the time the fraction is
> fast but the figure is slow.


Yep, I try to adjust every figure where horses ran suboptimal fractions, but it's a lot of work. Unless you have a lot of time, the best one can do is just to ballpark it, but it can make the difference between a slight top vs off, or a pair vs X.

This Derby will create lots of value over the next few weeks when some of these horses come back. Slower paced races can be more profitable if you can look at how fast they came home and properly project a figure if the race were another furlong or two longer. Doing that has put me on horses like Arrogate in the 2016 Travers at 11-1. I believe he had a series of 4s coming in, and he paired the 4 in his previous race that was brutally slow early, but I had projected that the figure would have been around a 2-2.5 if the race were 10 furlongs which made him super live for a bigger move.

Edit: Found it on the BC 2016 archives.. [www.thorograph.com]. He broke poorly behind a slow pace in that prep for the Travers and finished like a train. Travers shows a 8 3/4 pt top, but in reality it was only about a 6 pt top. Although I would never try to predict a 6 pt top, he was perfectly logical for a 2-4 point move forward (off the adjusted 2-2.5 in the allowance prep) in the Travers and that made him the major contender at a big price,