Re: Rich Strike out of Preakness. (461 Views)
Posted by: Socalman3
Date: May 12, 2022 03:20PM
It is' hard to diagnose the jump up because of the synthetic. If the horse truly doesn't like synthetic, then it worked its way to that 8 point jump and the progression didn't necessarily all happen all of a sudden. If the horse had steadily worked its way down from a 9 as a two year old reaction point to a 1....then getting 5 weeks rest, looking at a pair up of the 1 in the Belmont would not look crazy. The problem is we do not know this for sure and the extremeness of the jump up could be a whacky surface switch jump up. In those cases, you are looking at such an extreme jump it is hard to see how you don't bounce. But the situatoin could be one or the other of these cases and you need to try to assign percentages to what is going on. It is also possible that both are true. I think skipping the Preakness is a smart move and he has at least a 1 in 3 chance of pairing up his Derby fig on 5 weeks rest in the Belmont.
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