Re: Rich Strike out of Preakness. (513 Views)
Posted by: Socalman3
Date: May 12, 2022 04:54PM
> So what you are saying is it’s hard to diagnose
> a jump up?
Not that it is hard to diagnose a jump up, but rather whether the jump up is the type that is "isolated" or "unsupported" rather than a jump up that fits with the horse's overall career. Horses dont coming out running one number and that is what they are forever. At various times in their career they may make new tops. Sometimes it is in a smooth progression proportionately spread out over time or sometimes there are sudden quantum leaps. However, you can't judge it just based on absolute -- you can't say the horse just moved up XX points from its last top so he is automatically an isolated jump up. We see horses that run something on a surface and then move to a different surface 2 years later. I am saying that the time spent on Synthetic may have concealed the horse's development. if the horse absolutely hates synthetic, but he keeps running on it and keeps pairing his tops, the truth may be that if he was on his favored surface, those figures would have been new tops every time. For all we know, if this horse had run on Dirt instead of Synth, then maybe those intervening races should really be viewed as 7,5,3 and then all of a sudden the 1 doesnt look so crazy. I am just saying that surfaces can conceal what is really going on with the horse. The horse is still a jump up. The question though is what type of jump up and what to expect from it. I think there is a chance with spacing this horse pairs up this fig. But there is also a chance he will never see it again and this is a classic example of the one and done jump from synth to dirt. When Synth tracks were all new - there was tons of talk abut how there was a first time dirt jump up, but it was also a one and done thing. The problem is you need to live with the uncertainty -- in my view, if he is getting bet big in the belmont, then I would rather say he is a one and done type. However, if he is 25 to 1 in the Belmont and I think there is a 1 in 5 chance that he pairs his 1, then I will make that bet every time. I will lose 80% of the time, but I am fine with that because the 1 in 5 that i win is big enough to pay for all the losers and then some.