Re: Data for Churchill Downs (331 Views)
Posted by: smalltimer
Date: May 16, 2022 03:36PM
This doesn't relate directly to Churchill Downs, but it does relate to categorizing types of races.
I've been fortunate to play the game for over 50 years, over that time I've had the pleasure of researching aspects of the game, in fact, I enjoy the research portion as much as the wagering portion.
Pre-internet, I clipped PP's from the form on a trainer, taped it onto several pieces of paper and categorizing them as Maidens/Claimers/Allowance, SA, OCL type.
Then along comes my son and son-in-laws and they say why don't you let us develop a data base and speed up your research. Luckily they both wrote code and are software developers.
At that point, I had copied and pasted those PP's onto different trainer sheets, now I could have them logged into a data base, where I can click on something and have a ton of information.
I had always been of the belief that a Sprint is not simply a Sprint, nor a Route simply a Route.
I had broken each sprint into 4F, 5F,etc up to 7F. Then 7 1/2F to 1 1/2M as Routes. I used a designation short sprint (4F to 6F) and long sprint (6 1/2 to 7F). Same thing with shorter and longer Routes. (7 1/2F to 1 1/16th and 1 1/8th to 1 1/2M).
It became apparent when I did certain trainers that their numbers qualify them as distance specialists. Yes, we all know there are horses that are distance/surface specialists, but the same holds true for trainers.
So when I see the SPRINT numbers as, for example, 300 starts and 17% wins it simply means 51 wins. But what distance were those wins in? How many 4F races does Pletcher or Ward win and how do those wins affect the overall percentage of that hypothetical 51 wins?
They might win 40% of their 4F races, but win only 8% of their 5F or 6 1/2F races? To me, it has represented real opportunities to either single one of their horses in a Pick3-4-5 or a time to play against 1 or 2 distances where they have failed to win very often.
In a short period of time I did all 378 horses that Bill Mott had trained over a 3-4 year period and his horses threw up some numbers that just could not be dismissed. He also had a couple categories where I was more than happy to try to beat him.
Anyhow, I don't want to bore anyone, least of all the host, but I've really enjoyed the game, the process of trying to figure out who goes and who doesn't and somedays are not that hard, others will kick your ass.
The human element can never be dismissed. Of course, the horse and odds have to cooperate.
Let me have it now!!