Re: Data for Churchill Downs (324 Views)
Posted by: bluechip21
Date: May 16, 2022 07:02PM
I have asked about making TG data open source-ish in the past. It is not something they are interested in doing, with great understanding. So no qualms there. That said, if they did, I know some people who are ready, willing and able to provide the analysis. (One addition to the stats section of the sheet is the trainer last 90 days at the track. ... looking at you Juan Vasquez).
I have looked through all of the derby's available back when I was in the office (pre covid) and pretty much came to the same determination that the team did in the seminar. no more than 4 races as a 3YO, and no further off than the par, or what it takes to win the race (a 2 in this year's instance).
I have also done similar studies on breeders cup races. The takeaway there is that horses rarely run tops over 1-2 points. So it's difficult to expect a jump more than that. Local horses tend to run better and shippers are more liable for an off race ... all things JB has noted in his past BC seminars. But take that with a grain of salt because I'm the guy who bet half his BCBC bank roll on Jackie's Warrior last year trying to score a quick buck. ... nope.
Moving on the the claimer types. This is hard to do. Stakes horses are more classier than non stake horses (we all know this). Less classy horses have far more variance than the classy ones (again, and I apologize, we all know this). So it's difficult to zone in on patterns for say a 30k claimer at Churchill on a Thursday. Personally, I think reading charts and watching replays are the best angle for playing these sort of races. Figure making is tough, and I do not envy the job, but I think they provide lesser of an edge the lower down the condition book you go.
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