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Re: Preakness Stakes (572 Views)
Posted by: jwbcardinals (IP Logged)
Date: May 20, 2022 10:21AM

I am struggling with aligning my thoughts on patterns/readiness, pace, breeding, fresheners, etc.

Clearly pace makes the race, and it appears this race goes back to traditional front-speed bias in TC races. There isn't much signed on here to challenge Early Voting, so I would expect a moderate pace with Epicenter pressing...and then a gaggle within a couple lengths with Simplification, Creative Minister, Skippy, Armagnac, and Secret Oath.

Many of them are "close" in their figure range and on decent patterns, so not as many tosses as in the typical Derby handicapping. So how ready are they to fire at this distance on a hot day? Epicenter, Simplification, Creative Minister, and Secret Oath have a short 2-week turnaround. But although there historically are concerns for horses that moved forward in the KD coming back in 2 weeks...Epicenter, Simplification, and Secret Oath all paired their previous tops. So although the short rest is still an issue, it isn't as concerning as previous years. What does the timing, heat, distance do to their chances of running a top or pair?

Is there a concern with Creative Minister coming off a 4 point new top as well as coming back on short rest...which puts him in that risk category. But he is lightly raced and never gone backwards, so I guess there is no reason to expect regression.

There is also of course a risk of a horse running a high number of consecutive races without getting a "break/freshener". So in that category you have to wonder about those with many consecutive races like Secret Oath (8 races), Skippy (7), and Epicenter (6). This is a newer type of concern as horses aren't running as often...but something to consider.

Which of these factors do you consider most important when looking at this race?



Subject Written By Posted
Preakness Stakes (789 Views) prist 05/19/2022 05:01PM
Re: Preakness Stakes (676 Views) ajkreider 05/19/2022 05:44PM
Re: Preakness Stakes (572 Views) jwbcardinals 05/20/2022 10:21AM
Re: Preakness Stakes (608 Views) prist 05/20/2022 10:55AM
Re: Preakness Stakes (507 Views) jerry 05/21/2022 12:49AM
Re: Preakness Stakes (460 Views) prist 05/21/2022 09:44AM
Re: Preakness Stakes (467 Views) Tavasco 05/21/2022 02:06PM
Re: Preakness Stakes (288 Views) prist 05/22/2022 11:12AM
Re: Preakness Stakes (619 Views) confused 05/20/2022 12:39PM
Re: Preakness Stakes (654 Views) ajkreider 05/20/2022 08:53PM
Re: Preakness Stakes (610 Views) jerry 05/21/2022 01:06AM


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