MANHATTAN undercard stakes Belmont day
Limited sample of 14 from 2010-2021 not counting 2020:

CONCLUSIONS:
1. Current year Top for all ages should be 3’s or less
2. 4yo prior year Top: 5’s or less
3. 5yo prior year Top: 1’s or less
4. 6yo prior year Top: 3’s or less
5. 3.2 improvement or less in 3yo Top to 4yo Top;
6. 1 point or 0 improvement in 4yo Top to 5yo and older Top; Regressions no more than 2 can be accepted.
7. Most last raced 45 days or less. Longer layoffs up to 6 months can be ok.
8. Par is 1. 10 of 14 (71%) did get 1’s or less sometime this year or last year.
9. Last fig must be in Top 4
10. 50% were 5yo’s. Pick those in very close calls.
11. 1-3 races in current year, except Chad Brown can fire one without a race.