Re: Patterns for Belmont day (449 Views)
Posted by: richiebee
Date: May 24, 2022 06:20AM
Dub, I totally agree and I think if you find horses that "profile" well you may
be looking at some obvious horses.
In terms of the Just A Game, not a single mention of the fact that Chad Brown
won four of the last five runnings (Godolphin/Appelby won last year) for four
different owners, twice with I Ortiz and twice with Javier Castellano. Without
looking at nominations I would set the over/under for Chad entries in the Just
A Game at 3.5.
Similarly with the Belmont Stakes, should be mentioned that three of the last
eight runnings were won by sons of Tapit who Derbied and sat out Preakness.
Another son of Tapit, Tonalist, won the Belmont after prepping in the Peter
Pan. TAP's Charge It Tapit's only 2022 Derby representative this year and if he
comes back in Belmont he would be a long price off Derby stinker.
Other comments: Someone mentioned that Steve Asmussen might be angry at Joel
Rosario over the Preakness ride. Problem there is that Jackie's Warrior has
looked very happy (dominant) underneath Rosario last two starts. Also Epicenter
was coming back in two weeks after a very tough Derby. I think SA's comments
about Rosario's Preakness ride and his annointing of Gun Runner as the greatest
sire ever will both be taken with a grain of salt.
Richiebee Strike: Sekrah implied that the Derby winner would be an overbet
novelty in the Belmont creating value elsewhere. This gelding has gotten better
as he has gone longer and his dam put up a very fast TG at 3. Will be
interested to see what he looks like when he gets to Belmont, I am sure some
will be looking for value throwing him out of all gimmicks.
Rags to Richiebee: When I read that TAP might enter the filly Nest in the
Belmont, I looked back at Rags to Richiebee's TG; TAP's RTR was considerably
faster than Nest (both were going from Ky Oaks to the Belmont) and RTR's half
brother had won the Belmont the previous year. RTR very gritty in the Belmont
that year, beating Curlin by a head.