Wanted to pull out this topic from the Belmont thread and try to summarize, as it pays to remember that not everyone here has decades of experience with this stuff. Seemed to be some confusion even amongst long-time users in the thread, so I thought I would make an attempt at summarizing it, and others feel free to add color/corrections/comments.

There are also plenty of talking heads on TV/Web today who say they "dont believe in the bounce". Much like the Raggies, we say, welcome to the pools!

1) The most important part of the conversation is whether or not a "bounce producing top" has already occurred, TGJB will often refer to this as a number that "hurt", as the next race resulted in a backward move.

2) From here, I always tell my friends to think about a stark difference between "POSSIBLE this next race will be a bounce", which is for horses that have never went backwards, and "LIKELY to produce a bounce" which is for horses who have went backwards before and now have run a new top.

3) As with everything else in sheet theory, the amount of increase in the new top and spacing from last race, along with factors like age, breeding need to play into your considerations, and most importantly, the odds you are getting to bet the horse relative to your assessed potential for a bounce.

4) As Sekrah mentions, sometimes a bounce can still be good enough to win. In the O-2-X pattern, you need to ask yourself, could this horse bounce 2 points and still win? Sometimes the answer is yes, and Archangelo is a perfect example

5) RACE CONDITIONS - Regardless of whether we are discussing "possible" or "likely" bounces, sprinters are more likely to bounce than routers, fillies more likely than colts, dirt more likely than turf. For those of you who keep databases of your results, look at your ROI of just F/M dirt sprints where you played against an odds-on favorite who you projected to bounce. One of your best categories?

6) POSSIBLE analysis - for horses in this category you are trying to determine if this top was the end of development, or if it's possible to keep going. For 3 year olds this is a very tricky business.

- How big is this top? Anything larger than 3 points seems to increase the likelihood of a bounce, but rapid development with young horses is also common so this needs to be handled much differently than with older horses.
- How much development has already occurred? 8-10 points from initial races seems to be a general guideline, but there are often exceptions
- And here's one I see other horseplayers not considering enough, how does breeding fit the conditions? Have a look at Arrogate (granted lower sample size than other sires) 19%w/54%itm on dirt and a whopping 3 points better over a mile than under.
- How is the mare and other siblings? This is an edge I find in turf races where players dont see that additional improvement is still likely/possible based on a dirt to turf switch.

7) LIKELY analysis - When dealing with horses who have already backed up before some of the considerations change:

- Was the initial bounce the result of something unusual? A surface (mud, synth) the horse may not have preferred? Some ppl might argue that a bounce is a bounce regardless, but you might treat these a little more carefully.
- Is this new top the result of a "move up" trainer? That may establish a whole new range and make a serious bounce less likely.
- How does this new top fit the overall pattern? Is it more than 2 points faster than the previous bounce-producing top? Is it more than 10 points of development? These scenarios are more likely to produce bounces.
- How old is the horse? Are bounce producing tops getting slower over time for this horse as it gets older?

Hope this helps, let's hear some more comments.

And for those who think bounces dont exist, "Welcome to the pools"