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 Race of the Week:  2022 Belmont Stakes Day Final Figures Belmont 11 June 2022 
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Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (293 Views)
Posted by: dsipes (IP Logged)
Date: May 31, 2022 06:26PM

Did a deep dive in the archives for this race.

Any experts out there, please reply with any constructive criticism.

I ranked the final prep figures of the winners against all other runners in the race for each year from 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2003 thru 2007, and 2010 thru 2021 for a total of 21 horses. The results are you want your contender’s final prep fig to be ranked in the TOP 4. I could not find the race in 2002 archives and I didn’t use years 2008/2009 because those were artificial surface years.

I then did a search from 2001 - 2021 and the sample consisted of 26 winners and very, very close finishers (neck and head losers). Below are my conclusions:

In situations where fillies went from a Sprint to first route: only 5 have bounced in their first route, none by more than 3.3

From the race 2 back to final prep, 8/26 bounced but none by more than 4.2

22/26 had 6.2 or less in one of last 2 races. In close calls, prefer those with 5.3 or less in one of last 2 races. 16/26 (61%) had 5.3 in one of last two races.

Only 5/26 have had just 2 preps. Two of those ran 3.3 and 3.2 in one of those 2 races. Others: 4.3, 6 and 6.1
* 2019 top 2 finishers: Winner had two races, 2d place had 1 race

Those with 4 or more prior races:
* 2nd race to 3rd race: demand 0 to 4 point progression
* 2 back to final prep: like to see progressions under 2 points, but there have been regressions up to 4 points.

Those with 3 prior races:
2nd race to 3rd race (final prep): very small movement. Progressions should be less than 2 pts and regressions should be not more than 2 pts.

Those with only 2 races (first race to prep race): two progressed by 5 and 6.1 / the other two regressed 1.3 and 3.2

Subject Written By Posted
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (293 Views) dsipes 05/31/2022 06:26PM

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