Re: 2022 Belmont Field (555 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco
Date: June 10, 2022 09:14PM
2022 Belmont Field
1. We the People 2-1
This guy's Arkansas Derby is an enigma? He was reportedly washy before not getting involved and then going wide otherwise he began his career fast and has outrun all competition from the front in his other three races. Beware washy pre-race appearance. A deserving favorite if, you project he'll pair his jump-up last race top. If you project a reasonable probability of regression only a bounce makes him unusable verticles IMO. Pre-race behavior c/b the key.
2. Skippylongstocking 20-1
@ 20/1 this one deserves close inspection. His inclusion in the exacta or trifecta would probably make the day. I can forgive his regression in the Preakness because his Wood was a big effort. I would describe this one as a grinder. I don't think he is gonna catch any win contender but he sure could outlast some dropping an anchor in the last 1/4 mile. I think the only change the new pilot can make is to be more patient and try a deep closer strategy although that may be where its most crowded.
3. Nest 8-1
Trainer TAP deserves plenty of respect. But, I see him entering two as a sign of weakness. I'm guessing he is not sure Mo Donegal can catch WTP even at a mile and 1/2. Pace wise Nest can stay within sight of MTP and on her best cause a stretch duel. But, I don't expect her best. Other than her top in the Ashland Stakes she is slow vs these. Her 5 lb allowance does not impress me she is slow vs the males. She is a TG 4 horse and remember that speed figure includes weight. The 8/1 price is tempting, but she is the steam horse (I think) and as such probably drops to 6/1? Should she bounce back and repeat her Ashland she will probably be a good winner. To use or not to use probably a game time decision for me. very iffy now.
4. Rich Strike 7-2
7/2 get serious in my best John McEnroe voice. Yes a pair of his Kentucky Derby makes this one a cult star and possible turf starter but It's hard for me to imagine. My opinion is the Derby pace compromised the others severely @ 7/2 maybe a light use in minor positions. However, he could float up and then well at anything near 8/1 I may key him.
5. Creative Minister 6-1
So if a player can get a positive viewpoint of this colt then 6/1 is a gift IMHO. His last two races could cause one the consider him most likely to earn the smallest TG# Sat. His pattern does not scream bounce to me. I do see lots of effort in a short period of time. His Preakness was good but he was never going to beat the top two. Either by catching anybody or leading anybody. Same here I expect. @ 6/1 not seductive but no negatives I've noticed yet?
6. Mo Donegal 5-2
It's no secret this colt is talented and IMO will get faster with experience. 5/2 doesn't provide terrific value. I'm certain to use him in all verticle positions. One would think Irad can avoid unnecessary ground loss here. Contrarians will play against because I and other think he will be over-bet.
7. Golden Glider 20-1
I think this one will be overlooked by most. Yet the veteran owner saw enough last fall to invest $395k in him @ KEE fall sale. Then apparently turned right around and won a $127k MSW WO and then an nx1 at TAM. Wintering @ quirky TAM he didn't improve much when the race's paces did. Yet connections chose this race to enter? I think its reasonable to think he can run all day and the Belmont distance is a plus for him.
8. Barber Road 10-1
I like this one to regress more than I like him to improve. He earned a lot of checks via stamina. The abundance of racing and big effort top in the derby suggests the end of the road until rested to me. Of course one never really knows and maybe he is an iron horse with more improvement available. A pair up of his last could get him a check here. I suppose 10/1 is more a function of his finishes and $'s earned than it is his SR.
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