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Spa vs Del Mar, Pick 5's (530 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: July 03, 2022 10:02PM

I reviewed the early and late pick 5's for last year's Saratoga and Del Mar meets and made a spreadsheet listing all the payoffs. I didn't look at any middle or all stakes pick 5's. Only the early and the late pick 5's. A few preliminary comments.

1. Takeout. Saratoga is 15 percent. Del Mar early pick 5 is 14 percent and the late p5 is 23.68 percent.

2. CRW's are excluded from the late pick 5 at Saratoga although I am sure the men/women behind the CRW curtain still type in individual plays if they so desire from non CRW connected accounts.

3. All payouts were based on 50 cent increments.

4. I did not look at how the "value" compared to parlay calculated out although this may be very useful for people that have the time to pursue such a study.

5. Del Mar had 31 race days (62 Pick 5's) and Saratoga had 40 race days (80 Pick 5's) included. Again, I did not look at mid or all stakes pick 5's. Obviously, these are small sample sizes and may not provide enough for solid conclusions but I gave it a look anyway.

6. I did not double and triple check my spreadsheet for typos from looking at the charts so no warranties these are 1000 percent accurate but I feel pretty good about the numbers.

7. Field sizes are listed below and probably contribute along with takeout to the bigger prices at Del Mar.
______________________________

In essence, the basic numbers highlighted the early pick 5 at Del Mar was the best bet of the four choices BY FAR. Del Mar had far more chaotic, less predictable outcomes as there were 14 pick 5s paying over 10k in 62 sequences and only 8 pick 5's paying over 10k at Saratoga in 80 sequences studied. Saratoga was more "formful" and Del Mar was more chaotic last year.

______________________________

Highlights.

Del Mar's average pick 5's for the Early pick 5, late pick 5, and all pick 5's was about $15k. (15,981 Early p5, 15,376 Late p5, 15,679 for all Early/Late combined).
Saratoga's average pick 5's for the Early Pick 5 were far less than the late pick 5's where CRW's are excluded. Obviously I don't know if there is any correlation in this regard. (3,117 for Early p5, 10,142 for Late p5, 6630 for all Early/Late combined).

Del Mar's median pick 5's. (3203 Early p5, 1388 late p5, 1997 for all).
Saratoga's median pick 5's. (1003 early p5, 2212 late p5, 1480 for all).

Del Mar as categorized by amounts. (Early p5: 11 paid under 1k, 12 paid 1k to 10k, 7 paid 10 to 100k, 1 paid 100k+. Late p5: 12 paid under 1k, 13 paid 1k to 10k, 4 paid 10k to 100k, 2 paid 100k+).
Saratoga as categorized by amounts. (Early p5: 21 paid under 1k, 17 paid 1k to 10k, 2 paid 10k to 100k, none over 100k. Late p5: 14 paid under 1k, 20 paid 1k to 10k, 5 paid 10k to 100k, 1 paid 100k+).

Del Mar, All 62 p5's by percentage: 37%+ paid under 1k, 40%+ paid between 1k and 10k. (77.4% paid 10k or less).
Saratoga, All 80 p5's by percentage: 43%+ paid under 1k, 46%+ paid between 1k and 10k. (90% paid 10k or less).

Del Mar, Pick 5's under $500: 14 of 62 (22.5%)
Saratoga, Pick 5's under $500: 24 of 80 (30%)

Del Mar, Field Size: 8.45

Saratoga, Field Size: 7.7



Subject Written By Posted
Spa vs Del Mar, Pick 5's (530 Views) Fairmount1 07/03/2022 10:02PM
Re: Spa vs Del Mar, Pick 5's (355 Views) Molesap 07/03/2022 11:22PM
Re: Spa vs Del Mar, Pick 5's (508 Views) trackjohn 07/05/2022 10:31AM
Re: Spa vs Del Mar, Pick 5's (292 Views) johnnym 07/05/2022 08:17PM
Re: Spa vs Del Mar, Pick 5's (267 Views) Blueskies 07/06/2022 01:19PM
Re: Spa vs Del Mar, Pick 5's (261 Views) Ace 07/06/2022 09:44PM
Re: Spa vs Del Mar, Pick 5's (247 Views) trackjohn 07/07/2022 06:42AM
Re: Spa vs Del Mar, Pick 5's (227 Views) johnnym 07/08/2022 12:22PM
Re: Spa vs Del Mar, Pick 5's (195 Views) trackjohn 07/08/2022 10:03PM
Re: Spa vs Del Mar, Pick 5's (153 Views) johnnym 07/09/2022 07:26AM


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