Re: Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (372 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco
Date: July 15, 2022 12:38PM
Well hopefully the race stays on the lawn and we don't have to contend with a 3/5 favorite in Art Collector?
Further, the scratch of Chad Brown's trainee Analyze It eliminates a veteran that I was on the fence about.
I'm not too concerned about form or patterns in this one as it is Saratoga they are all capable on their good days. The jockey colony is second to none. But it is on the inner turf and that gives me pause. Two turns, only one mile so more of a save ground long sprint than an endurance contest IMHO.
One of my contenders is Mira Mission a good post position @ #3. A presser with regular rider Frenchy up. My concern is position. With speed next to him on both sides tucking in on the rail through the first turn s/b easy enough but getting through traffic and not getting stopped dictates the finish of this one.
Yes and Yes breaking from gate #4 c/b the pacesetter or close given a good start. He will be hard-pressed to stay in the lead late but I'm thinking no lost ground for this one. A big m/l price.
Set Piece who I figure to be the strongest finisher has his work cut out for him breaking from the inside gate. The good news is there s/b an inside pocket open for him on the first turn which will avoid a ground loss that leaves him with no chance.
Atone should be able to also get a good position early tracking the #;s 2 & 4 he is a good balance between early speed and strong finisher. However both the #'s 5 & 6 present traffic problems for Atone. S/b manageable for jockey Prat. M/L 6/1 seems a fair proposition on a consistent performer against better.
In an imaginary world, in the real world, the early speed expectation will stumble, the totally out-of-form horse will jump up and run new top while the ultra-consistent contender will inexplicitly bounce.
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