I liked P-Dub’s format so much, I “borrowed” it.

1 - Forte 7/5ML: Agree with P-Dub completely. Forte was clearly at the top of the class last year and most have been anticipating a major forward move, but he has just inched forward as a three-year old. His speed figures have not increased much, his wins have been marginal and he was beaten in the Belmont. Yet, he seems to have an uncanny will to win and gets to the wire first most of the time. I am going to have to use him in the P5 on half the tickets even though I suspect he will be less than even money when the gates open.

2 - Archangelo 5/2ML: Hate the 11 weeks off but the Belmont-Travers double is 6-1-0-3 in the last 20 years, so maybe it is not that bad. Thought he got the perfect trip in the Belmont. He is a toss for me as well as I think he will regress and while I am still learning how to read patterns, I don’t like his.

3- Tapit Trice 12ML: He is just a goofy horse. I'm surprised that it took them this long to put the blinkers on but maybe it makes a difference. It sometimes takes the offspring of Tapit a lot of time before their head catches up with their physical ability and sometimes it never happens. He has competitive numbers and his in/out pattern points to “in” today as P-Dub noted. I know there is more to it than this, but if you rank order the TG figures, Mage has the fastest two and then Tapit Trice has the next two fastest tied with one for Arcangelo - Tapit Trice has the talent, but “you gotta get your mind right.” At double digit odds, I can take a flyer on the second fastest horse in the race who may be coming into the race on the upswing.

4 - Mage 4ML: Trainer stated that he did not want to run Mage back in the Preakness two weeks after the Derby except he felt compelled to do so with the Triple Crown. As TGJB reminded me, two weeks off is tough to overcome and he regressed. Before the Haskell, trainer said it was more likely Mage would be a little short as they were using this as a prep race for their ultimate goal - the Travers. He loomed at the top of the stretch and it looked like he hung a bit late - just as you would expect a horse to do that was running the race as a prep. He paired his Derby figure in the Haskell as a prep. I think the five weeks off is ideal and he looks set for a forward move here. In my estimation, he is the fastest horse coming in and the most likely to move forward. I think he has a breakout race and he is my top choice. I really like this spot for him. I have already singled him in a relatively cheap two day P6.

5 - National Treasure 8ML: National Treasure got the perfect set a circumstances in the Preakness and made the most of it when he wired the field in an extremely slowly paced race. I think he is quicker than Scotland (and the TG Pace Projector agrees with that) but interestingly the blinkers they put on for him to run in that race are coming off today - is that a signal they're not going send him? I think it's odd because Baffert attributed at least part of the Preakness win to new blinkers. johnnym noted that if you look at his TG sheet, his three-year old pattern looks similar to Arrogate’s with a bunch of 4s before blowing up this race. I am not betting that's going to happen. I will not use.

6 - Disarm 8ML: Disarm has been competitive in the Triple Crown trail for the most part but has been on the short end of the stick against a couple of these a few times. He gets blinkers and there's no reason he can't run well. However, unless he improves more than a couple of lengths and everyone else just treadmills, he probably will not end up in the winner’s circle. Could get a piece though.

7 - Scotland 12ML: Intriguing entrant who I think is going to get bet relatively hard - I put the over/under at 7/1. Scotland is the newcomer to all of this, and he is a late developing 3YO with a bit of buzz. Mott trains and the horse he just beat in the Curlin won the Smarty Jones at Prx the other day. This is a huge step up in class though and while the pace dynamics may work a bit in his favor, I think he is becoming the wise guy horse. He went 9f OK last time, but with that Speightstown mare bottom, I wonder of he wants 10f. That being said, I suspect he will be on or near the lead going into the stretch. After that I am just guessing but the more experienced routers with quicker late fractions may run him down. Comes down to price for me, but anything near his morning line seems like it would be good value.

I have the same tosses as P-Dub, but my key will be the shorter priced Mage. I will be keying Mage with some plays to Forte and Tapit Trice in the multi-race exotics and maybe a stab to Scotland as well.