>I definitely do NOT think the level of competition etc. should result in the % going down-- <

If I am understanding you correctly, I have to disagree.

The average stake (these days) has about 3 legitimate contenders, a handful of other horses that would have to improve to get the money, and a couple of duds.

Breeder's Cup races are sometimes 6-8 deep (or more) with horses that have a very legitimate shot. In a large field of very high quality and fairly evenly matched horses you are going to get more horses that aren't going to reproduce their typical figures because of their position and pace preferences relative to where they actually wind up and other aspects of trip and ability over and above the impact of ground loss.

I agree that there are other reasons why the Derby often produces failures besides what I am highlighting above, but some of it is the same.

In the old days, typical Grade I races were a lot like the BC is these days. A few top notch horses would routinely get trounced (and produce subpar speed figures) because the fields were so deep with talent. Then they would come back with their typical figure when spotted where they got the position and pace they wanted and slightly weaker competition to contend with when the battle began.

If you think every aspect of a horse's ability and performance can be reduced to a number, you obviously aren't to agree with me. That's OK. But IMHO, you are misunderstanding the impact the depth and quality of a field can have on the speed figures of individual horses. The BC is a perfect example of it.

Now if you are saying that everyone else's stats should be similar to Frankel's, you are missing one of my prior points that Frankel's greatest skill is in spotting his horses properly. That skill gets neutralized in the BC and puts him on a level playing field with everyone else.

Finally, again, we are talking about small samples. If Frankel has 2-3 very good years in the BC in the next 5 years, the stats might look very different.



Post Edited (10-15-04 14:43)