A month before the Derby, this is what I wrote about the potential odds:

Fierceness 5-2
Sierra Leone 9-2
Forever Young 7-1
Rest over 10-1

______________________

Off Odds:

Fierceness, 3.21-1
Sierra Leona, 4.79-1
Forever Young 7.03-1
1 other horse under 10-1 (Catching Freedom)


The X world celebrating Aragona as a genius for saying 3-1 and 9-2 on the top 2 of course. Love the guy as a handicapper and ML guy but this isn't some miraculous work he did if I was this close a month out.

_______________________

On another note, Fierceness had an ideal trip mostly and was nowhere to finish 15th. Add him to the list of Todd's nowhere on Derby Day. Todd's horses ran pretty awful over the 2 days except the short priced allowance winner early yesterday. This wasn't unexpected as I set forth way in advance.

What I'd like to hear is all the talking heads today, tomorrow and this week go back and review things they said in the time leading up to the race. I have folks on FanDuel who may have mentioned that my Pletcher posts may be "overthinking" things and that "this is just a horse race" and "This horse should be a monster win bet because he towers over the field and it is obvious." Come on down and let's hear from them now about what a DUD Fierceness turned in and the money they surely lost. Matt B and Kurt H, I'm looking at you among others. . . .

________________________

Congrats to the McPeek barn. I went after Forever Young who had a tough start, wide trip, and bumped in the lane. Not to be but I was more than satisfied with the horse's effort.

Last, Great call by PonyBologna on the pick on the board. Hope you cashed Large!