Thanks for asking for more detail about my observation that horses were not running back to their performances on Arc day and the day before. On both days Longchamp was very firm and quite fast. Only one winner was able to repeat, that being Westerner who won a marathon race with little real competition on either day (I think he was 1-10 and then 4-10). The only other notable performance in a return race was Walkamia, third to Alexander Goldrun and Grey Lilas on Arc day. Last Sunday she ran second in a Gr.I stake in Rome, but in truth the competition was really only of Gr. III caliber. Other than those two, just about all the others for whom I could find subsequent races for all finished worse than their previous race. This is not to say, of course, that all horses who raced that day have not done well- several who were unplaced on those days have come back to win.

As far as Ouija Board is concerned, though, I think she is really up against it as I think these data show that few horses were able to run back to their form of the first week of October. Plus she ships a long way, and is a young filly as well. Obviously anything can happen, and if she can overcome these negatives, then she is a truly great horse. But it sure won't be with my $$ on her. (Which could mean you might want to go to the windows now).

But for what its worth:

The following table shows horses who raced at Longchamp on Oct 2 and 3rd (Arc day), and how they fared in their subsequent race (through today, Oct 27).

Horse Finish-Oct 2+3--- Finish next out

2Oct

Ascot Dream 1st--- 5th
Filmeala 3--- 4
Percussionist 3--- 6
Viane 1--- 10
Ambrose 3--- 9
Russian Hill 2--- 4
Behkara 3--- 2
Hurricane Alan 2--- 3
Flip Flop 1--- 7
Bright Abundance 3--- 5
Buisson Fortin 3--- 15

3Oct
Anteoquia 1--- 6
Ainebe Crocus 2--- 4
Westerner 1--- 1 (Gr.I, LCP)
Le Carre 3--- 4
Walkamia 3--- 2 (Gr.I, Rome)
Yesterday 4--- ???
Ouija Board 3--- ???
Chopastair 1--- 3



Post Edited (10-28-04 08:37)