EZGoer-

Of course it matters what other horses did- that's the whole basis behind generating variant-based numbers.

To tell the truth, I have actually liked this filly for a while, and won with her in the past, and was looking forward to seeing her in the BC. But what I have seen over the past few weeks is self evident- horses are not running back to the form they displayed at Longchamp. After seeing your comment, I also went back to see how many might have been 2yos- turns out only one of the winners I listed (Ascot Dream) is a 2yo. But, and I think importantly, what I do see now is that out of the six winners on those days, four were fillies and all ran out in their next race. Only Westerner, the older distance horse who did run back to his form, and one other (Chopastair), were males. More than before, I am convinced that Longchamp that day was rock hard (a couple of 7 furlong races went in under 1:20), and that many horses, particularly fillies, may have been negatively affected by it. Especially considering how fast the Arc was run , as well. Might want to take note also that Grey Lilas, who had been pointed for the BC FMT, won on Arc day and was then not entered in the BC.

Maybe Ouija Board will win, if so I will say she is a great filly for having overcome these apparent negatives. But we are all in the prognostication game- trying to see patterns and then bet accordingly. So it does matter what other horses who raced on that day have done since then. This is simply one pattern I've observed here that, if it holds up, will have a major influence on the outcome of one of the BC races. I'm happy to share this, but everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I'm out on a limb here too, but all things considered, I simply think she's up against it in this race, and especially as a favorite will be a good "bet against".

FYI, I've only found two horses from the Arc race who have raced since then. Pride, who I think finished 13th, came back and won a Gr.III race, and Imperial Dancer returned to finish 3rd (dq to 5th) in a GrI race in Italy, which was won by Shirrocco (who interestingly had scratched out of the Arc because his trainer felt the track was too hard).



Post Edited (10-28-04 06:15)