According to the Lone Star Track Superintendent on the air that morning, the turf "rail" - or the inside 3 lanes - were being used for the first time all meet.

Most likely, the grass was thicker, higher and perhaps softer as it is unlikely that it had not been "rolled" or run on. Comments from some of the trainers who walked the course on Thursday indicated that the turns were still soft, and there was another 1/2 inch of rain late Friday-early Saturday am.

Because of the "first-time inside" angle, I specifically looked for Europeans and American horses who liked yielding that figured to stay or be on the rail most or part of the way, figuring that it would help them run their best numbers. This also made Star of the Bay an absolute throwout for me because he had never run on anything other than firm and I thought the inside would be extremely tiring for him (even though he is a Cozzene and should like it off). I also thought Prado would tuck in, but I knew that the F&M race started on the far turn and it would be a miracle for him to be able to be anywhere near the pace with that handicap. On the other hand, JR excells at inside stalking or pace trips on the turf, and from the two hole he figured to be right there.

However, I did not bet the race because when OB went to 3/5, I knew that the English books were unloading as they had already stated that her win would kill them. Some of the books actually stopped taking bets on OB the Wed prior to the race. And since the inception of the filly/mare turf race, the English books have been dead-on in that the winner has either been the favorite at the start or the close of the antepost betting - although OB closed as the heavy fav she was not the original one...that honor belonged to Wonder Again - who perhaps with a different post would beaten OB. And if the English books still thought WA could pull it off from the 12 hole, they would have left OB at 8/5 rather than driving her down to 3/5.



Post Edited (11-01-04 19:49)

Delmar Deb