Delmar Deb wrote:

> However, I did not bet the race because when OB went to 3/5, I
> knew that the English books were unloading as they had already
> stated that her win would kill them. Some of the books
> actually stopped taking bets on OB the Wed prior to the race.
> And since the inception of the filly/mare turf race, the
> English books have been dead-on in that the winner has either
> been the favorite at the start or the close of the antepost
> betting - although OB closed as the heavy fav she was not the
> original one...that honor belonged to Wonder Again - who
> perhaps with a different post would beaten OB. And if the
> English books still thought WA could pull it off from the 12
> hole, they would have left OB at 8/5 rather than driving her
> down to 3/5.
>

Deb, interesting theory. I'll be sure to keep it in mind for next year and I'd be inclined to wager right now that I will overcome this "trend". My belief is that as soon as you identify a "trend" that runs counter to probabilities without an objective reason for doing so its time to bet against a continuation of that trend. I see no reason to suspect that English bookmakers and bettors should indentify a favorite as the winner in this race with any more frequency than any other race. As a matter of fact I'd think they'd be less apt to identify such a winner in such a race on a course with configuration like Lonestar Park. I did pass this race however.

CtC



Post Edited (11-01-04 21:52)