jbelfior wrote:

> BDHsheets--
>
> I don't see anything in this thread that alludes to Day's ride
> costing AZERI the race.
>
> Without speaking for the others, my feeling is that AZERI had
> no shot to win the race regardless of how she was handled by
> Day.
>
> The point is that if the connections thought she had a shot to
> win, then why not take advantage of the circumstances and send
> her to the lead when the opportunity presented itself.
>
> You put AZERI on the lead in a :46 4/5 and a 1:11, and I'll bet
> you dollars to donuts she finishes better than 5th.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

Joe, I'm not a performance figure purist. Its why I'm not a regular T-Graph customer. I believe in careful scrutiny of the whole enchilada. In my opinion one factor in performance figures is pace. If horses aren't pushed to their limits in the first part of a race its generally foreseeable that the performance figure for the race will not be top or near top. Track bias or glibness is a factor in this of course, as well as other variables. The challenge and beauty of the investigation is the most intriguing part of the endeavor. That said, I am in accord with your belief that pace modifications can affect the outcome of the race. The tacit agreement between Frankel and Ramsey certainly had an impact. As did Day and Lukas's failure to seize the day. I did not think Azeri capable of winning the Classic. But I thought she had one chance, forge to the front, take the game to the others and attempt to ration speed for as long as her stamina and the track would take her. If she had followed that formula, I'm not so sure she wouldn't have won. Running as she did denied her the chance to finish as RIM and GZ did: Out in front on the best part of the track and full of run with plenty in reserve. My horses were RIM and Funny Cide. It wasn't Funny's day and it wasn't gonna work out, but I tend to think Azeri failed to take advantage of a golden opportunity.

CtC



Post Edited (11-04-04 13:49)