It is funny how things come full circle. Back in the summer, JB thought that betting against Blackdoun was a great opportunity (maybe it was), but Laura's Lucky Boy got run down late by Blackdoun at a flat mile. Even after the race, Jerry said something like "I will take my chances betting against the Blackdoun's every time". Now, off the BC Mile race, which T-Graph had him running a "hidden" top, he looks like a possible play. I don't think so though. I do think the fig was legit in the Mile, but I don't like the horse stretching out to 1 1/4. Plus, how many of these horses that ran in the BC last month have come back and run poorly in November. Nothing to Lose, Special Ring and Champali, to name a few. I don't like these "afterthought" races. Also, why hasn't Blackdoun tried distance races before, especially in Europe, where there are so many to choose from. My guess is that his connections realized early on that distances was not this colt's "sweet spot". His brilliant acceleration at 1 mile, might not be there at 1 1/4 or longer. That happens all the time.

As the favorite today, he looks vulnerable, to say the least. The problem is coming up with the winner, even if you throw him out. I think Timo is usable. I believe the east coast three year olds on turf have been better this year. Timo ran close to ARtie Schiller, who despite a miserable BC, was a very very good horse this year. Terroplane has some sneaky good figures and is usable in the exotics. Laura's Lucky Boy could be very formidable over a track he likes. When he got run down late at Delmar, the Delmar turf course was heavily biased towards frontrunners, with the Hollywood course certainly not the case now. Also, the horse might get position, even from the outside post, because of the paucity of early speed in the race. Fight Club might be a play in the exotics also, although the European shippers tend to do better on the less firm turf courses and not so good out west.

Keying Timo and Laura's Lucky Boy over Timo, Laura's Lucky Boy, Terropplane and Fight Club. Maybe a win bet on Timo or Laura, depending on the price.