CtC,
just separate your "on form" theory from pat day's ride, and i think your argument makes a bit more sense. if day rides her along early, she collapses, you have enough knowledge of this game to understand that. shift your focus to the lucas/paulson stategy, maybe they took some speed out of her in the mornings? stop blaming this on day, with the bad break, she was not getting the lead without being used rather hard, and azeri had never been used hard early. it's rather preposterous to assume she would have finished with a lot of energy in that scenerio.