Here is the way too early balanced derby morning line based on the current points list. I don't look at the books or offshore whatsoever when I do this. Please feel free to tear it apart as I say every year as I'm looking for feedback of where others believe the odds will be. Or post the offshore odds if you are so inclined although I don't believe those represent a balanced morning line.

A couple of notes. The more formful derby results the last 3 years I think will drift the bottom horses back to closer to appropriate higher odds. Last year, we started to see that happen even with only 18 horses. Also, I disagree with the assessment of Mo Tom at 5th choice if he gets in as was posted. Likely, Cupid would be first to defect from this list to get Mo Tom in but injuries could change all of that. If Cupid doesn't go and Mo Tom slides in I see him as 8th or 9th choice right around that 20-1 mark and then adjustments needed to others to reflect the change.

As always, I am curious phil23's thoughts on this list. I wavered on Creator and Mohaymen a few times. Gave Mohaymen a slight edge in rank due to reputation but Winstar Horses seem to get bet in the Derby, See Carpe Diem last year.


1. Nyquist, 3.50-1
2. Exaggerator, 4.80-1
3. Brody's Cause, 6.10-1
4. Destin, 6.60-1
5. Mohaymen, 10.70-1
6. Creator, 14.30-1
7. Gun Runner, 17.10-1
8. Mor Spirit, 19.80-1
9. Suddenbreakingnews, 24.60-1
10. Danzig Candy, 26.70-1
11. My Man Sam, 30.20-1
12. Whitmore, 31.20-1
13. Outwork, 36.00-1
14. Shagaf, 40.60-1
15. Cupid, 42.40-1
16. Tom's Ready, 44.40-1
17. Majesto, 49.00-1
18. Lani, 57.80-1
19. Oscar Nominated, 65.60-1
20. Trojan Nation, 75.90-1