>Rock Hard didn't scare anyone away there and he still hasn't run a race against handicap horses, nor one that was particularly fast.<

Agreed. He shouldn't scare anyone away. However, he doesn't face anyone here that is proven against high quality horses in fast time either. He's against horses just like himself - essentially horses that showed some potential at 3 that are still looking to fulfill that promise (primarily Castledale, Love of Money and Imperialism)

One of the keys is obviously Love of Money.

He has one very fast race loose on the lead against mediocre horses. It looks to me like he could "potentially" get loose here too. If no one presses him, it will take a big effort to beat him if he's 100%.

Then again, you can't be as confident about a horse with only one big effort when he's coming off a 4 month layoff and a terrible race. You have to dscount his chances of firing a big race a little and not evaluate him strictly as though he's going to duplicate that fast effort for certain.

IMO, he is less certain to fire a big shot than RHT, but his best race is faster.

In a situation like this I prefer RHT (strictly from a propability point of view -not a value point of view) because I think RHT does have a much faster race in him than he has shown so far and could win even if LOM gets loose and comes back 100%.

It's going to be a tough race to bet because I think RHT is probably going to get over-bet, but IMO probably not by enough to create positive value elsewhere unless they totally overlook Castledale.



Post Edited (02-05-05 12:00)