TGJB,

That's a very interesting point. I've never actually studied it carefully. My "feeling" has always been that there have been quite a number of contenders that disappointed in the Derby with the supposed excuse of not being prepped well enough.

IMO, the major problem with studying the Derby is that the field is usually so huge, many horses have horror show trips. There has been more than a few extreme paces that eliminated many of the contenders. Lots of horses throw in dud races for no apparent reason and then come back at Pimlico and fire their best shot.

The conditions are so demanding, that's it's difficult to build a useful profile of what gets the job done. A high percentage of the time you wind up with extremely subjective views on who was actually best etc....

Personally, I think horses peak in their 3rd-5th start after a layoff if the trainer is doing his job well. If you come back too sharp or too short, I think it can cause a lot of problems later in the season.

I think St. Liam for example came back WAY too sharp. I don't expect him to last until the end of the season. I think RIM came back as well as a horse could possibly come back. I expect him to be peaking in the early summer. Then they can freshen him and perhaps win the BC. St Liam will be on a farm by then.