It is only 9 or 10 weeks away from the derby, so it is not too soon to start talking/thinking about it. I have two general topics that I would love to hear opinions on, the first one is about number of preps before the derby. This year more than ever, this is an issue in handicapping. The top five derby prospects on the Derby Watch on DRF are all going to have two preps instead of the traditional 3. I think there are some conflicting stats that are difficult to explain. Here they are:

1. Many handicappers I know believe that a horses "3rd race off the layoff" is a great betting angle and often the race where a horse shows his best race. This would seem to favor two preps, not three.

2. I believe the stat is that only once in the last 50/60 years has a horse with less than 3 preps won the Derby. To me this is a significant sample. No, it isn't as statistically significant as having 1000's of races to look at, but it is as large a sample as you can get with a "once a year" race and I think too strong a trend to ignore.

I am guessing based on JB's comments I have seen in the past that he views the 2 preps/3 preps question to be irrelevant and in fact I remember him saying in last year's derby seminar that he applauded the connections of Friend's Lake for entering the derby off the layoff, as a fresh horse. But this angle also has almost never worked. I think that it is possible/likely that many strong handicapping angles for "normal" races are "out the window" for the Derby. Things like having a fresh horse, having a horse running "3rd off the layoff", etc.

Any other views?